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Credit outside the southeast: lender's perspective
Therefore, you will probably not be surprised to find that the two issues we concentrate on most often are (a) the prospects for UK housing and ( b) the areas of the UK where we believe we should concentrate. So let me give you the reason why, in my view, London / SE is currently making a riskier offer for real estate investments than the UK.
First, it is important to know who supports the London / SE real estate markets. Looking at the simplest response to this, the London / SE real estate markets have been boosted by overseas investments over the last 6 years (I like to call this "hot money"). Fundamental freedoms are robust and ownership is open to non-resident purchasers without penalty tax.
In fact, the huge devaluation of the pound sterling against most of these major foreign exchange markets makes London real estate much less expensive than in previous years. Why do I believe that London / SE is a riskier asset than the other UK regions given the above factual patterns? 1 ) Interest can only increase from their present historical low.
Obviously, interest rate inflation can only start from its present historic low, and recent figures point to a faster than previously anticipated rate appreciation. Raising interest will dampen borrowers' appetites for a move up the real estate ladder and force some real estate into reoccupation (increasing supply).
In addition, and this is a subject for another item, it is historic more than once the case that when interest rates begin to climb, they do so so quickly. So what happens if the rate goes up 3% in the course of a year? Due to the shocking effect of quickly soaring interest prices, properties that have been taken back into possession will come onto the real estate markets (dramatically growing supply).
Following on from the first point above, when interest rates begin to move higher, the pound will become stronger in step with other major foreign exchange markets. Does this explain why aliens have accumulated in the London / SE real estate markets, but why will they go? Simple, the exchange rate is (partly) set by the interest rate paid by a particular denomination.
When interest rate starts to go up (or is likely to go up), the pound sterling will increase. With 18 million Japaneseuan, there will definitely be a restraint on the part of international purchasers to purchase further British real estate (falling demand). Also given that I believe that many of the resources that have gone into the London / SE real estate markets are "hot money", I believe that they will also go quickly.
If, as shown above, a non-resident is on a winning streak and sees a flaw in the real estate markets, he will take his profits, selling the real estate and continuing (increase offer). 3 ) Buying to rent investments will no longer make much use ( if it still does today at all).
There is good documentation that Buy to Let Investments has seen dramatic growth in recent years. Probably due to British citizens' mistrust of stocks and debt in the face of the recent turbulence, as well as the amount of red cash that has gone from overseas to the London / SE real estate markets.
But if you hold back and look at the numbers, they no longer make much point as a long-term outlay. Following lengthy research (mostly for my own reason given my recent move to a leased house), it is clear that the best London property's overall rent returns are around 3.5%.
Basically, if your rate of inflation is above 2%, you will lose every year your investments. What has been said above is based on the assumption that the real estate is mortgage-free, which is clearly not the case in the overwhelming majority of cases. London / SE's real estate markets are ok as a "port in a storm" - but as a long-term invest it has no feet.
Once the overall economy looks quieter, you anticipate that there will be a withdrawal of hotsey players from the markets (increasing supply). It is clear that buy to let yields outside London / SE will continue to hurt as interest yields continue to increase, but the extra return achieved compared to London / SE will help to boost buying levels somewhat to meet investment demands in these areas.
4 ) The government's plan to impose taxes on overseas investment will encourage the sale of portfolio real estate and a buying restraint. This warning will cause some overseas buyers to wish to divest their British assets so as not to incur dividends in the form of an increase in the offer. It is also seen as a downside vis-à-vis other overseas investment firms wishing to enter the UK economy (falling demand).
I believe, however, that the UK non-London / SE markets have not been biased by the same degree of FDI and therefore the downward trend is not as significant in the case of significant housing underperformance.