Refinance interest Rates today

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How does the low interest rate environment mean for MBS?

Homepage > Glimpses > What does the low interest rate environment mean for our client company mortgage brokeraging? At the beginning of 2015, the steep fall in interest rates had a significant impact on MBPs. In 2014, the Agency's mortgage bond markets were characterised by low levels of instability, advance payment risks and good performances, but the January recovery of US Treasuries led to exactly the opposite.

Following a sharp upturn in the US office bond (MBS) backed markets in 2014, the recent fall in US interest rates has led to a significant shortfall in MBS compared to US Treasuries. Since several years, office loans have benefited from the US Federal Reserve's enormous increase in its asset base, restricted interest rates volatility as well as robust asset demands for high value investments with yields distributed across US Treasuries.

As interest rates decline, borrower usually start refinancing their mortgage and the bond covered by these mortgage sooner than anticipated, and as interest rates increase, borrower will no longer have an inducement to refinance, resulting in longer maturities. Whereas the spots on 31 December 2014 implicated that FNMA 4.0% rates should be around 1.43% higher, they are actually only 0.02% higher.

When interest rates fall, an increasingly large part of the mortgaging world can be funded. Restricted funding prompted many issuers to review their MBS model due to a reduced probability of advance payment of loans. Rising advance payments not only have an effect on the Pfandbrief's liquidity, but also increase the number of new issues on offer. Following a year of unexpectedly low funding and lending in 2014, we expect that the offer will take investor interest rates upwards by surprise given the present level of interest rates on loans.

With less than a trillion US dollars in 2014 issues of Bruttoagentur MBS (the smallest amount since 2007), many investor have corrected their 2015 offer guidance to a historic low. Whereas there have been episodes of instability in the MBS markets in recent years, most of them have been short-lived as the Fed's account has expanded during its asset purchasing programme, helping to support pricing regardless of valuation or the evolution of the markets.

What can intervene to take the place of the Fed in the office of MBS in 2015? Any new issues that the markets will soon face will have to find purchasers, and we expect that with today's lower returns and narrow spread rates, fewer purchasers can be expected. In much of the post-crisis context, banking and, to a smaller degree, mortgaging RREITs (Real Estate Investments Trusts) were net purchasers of MBSs, while non-US issuers were permanent sales.

Bankers and foreign depositors are what we would call "yield investors", where we buy when interest rates are relatively high and sell when interest rates are relatively low. That is particularly important as the bank industry holds around 27% of the entire MBS brokerage and was one of the biggest net purchasers of MBS in 2014.

As a rule, a bank buys less MBS and retains less credit (rising securitisation interest rates) if interest rates are at the lower end of a perceptible band. Non-US investors' interest in MBS is also likely to fall, given the low interest rates at present, as these purchasers are yield-sensitive. In the aftermath of the turmoil, foreign investment has made it possible for foreigners to reduce their MBS exposure through amortisation (receipt of capital and interest payment and non-re-investment).

Hypotheken-REITs, the third biggest non-fed supporters of MBS in the post-crisis climate, are also unable to be purchasers of materials in the present milieu. Moreover, the increase in implicit volatility means that much of the subprime Retired Investment Bank (REIT) subprime debt is kept low, leading to reduced aggregate debt for MBS.

All in all, the favourable climate of Fed backing, favourable advance payment rates and technical benefits that prevailed in the MBS 2014 markets seems to change dramatically in 2015. In line with what is typical in low voltage industries, many traders have extended to buy in Agent MBS, often using leveraging, and recent levels of trading indicate that these traders are in the early stage of unwinding.

Since the Fed is no longer a net purchaser, a moderate reversal of the issue to historic highs would lead to a surprise amount of new MBS offering in the market - with fewer purchasers at actual interest rates and spreads soaring. "Staying cool and going on" was the 2014 topic, but "back to reality" could be the 2015 topic.

In 2014, the Agency's mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets were characterised by low levels of instability, advance payment limits and robust performances, but the sharp recovery of US Treasuries in January led to exactly the opposite. Investment in the debt markets is exposed to various types of exposures, which include exposure to markets, interest rates, issuers, credits, rates of return, currency exchange and cash flows.

Interest changes affect the value of most debt instruments and investment policies. Long-term debt and investment policies tended to be more fragile and more volatile than shorter-term ones; debt rates generally decline as interest rates increase and the currently low interest rates increase this exposure.

Mortgages and asset-backed securities may be vulnerable to changes in interest rates susceptible to prepayment risks and their value may vary in reaction to perceived credit quality of issuers by the markets; although generally backed by some kind of public or commercial guarantees, there is no certainty that commercial guarantees will work.