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Annual UK credit report supported by structural strengths
Moody's Investors Service writes in its annual UK Credit Report that the UK's public sector indebtedness continues to be supported by significant underlying strength in terms of credit quality and the UK's creditworthiness. However, the CRA warns that the government's budgetary adjustment and deleveraging effort in the coming years will be hindered by weakening cyclical expectations and the risk of the continuing public sector indebtedness crises in the Eurozone.
Whilst these issues are currently mirrored in the UK government's adverse credit stance, Moody's will review its current credit stance and credit stance in the first few month of 2013 to evaluate the implications of these issues and the government's forthcoming fall declaration. CRA' s report is an annual market up-date and does not represent a credit assessment measure.
This report can be downloaded from the links at the end of this news. Moody's new report emphasises key strength underpinning the UK's ana ratings, among them: Favorable deleveraging profile, with low funding exposure and a large local investment portfolio. Dedication to budgetary stabilisation, which is strongly geared to spending restraint.
A very high level of institution-building, encompassing a broad set of monetar y and fiscally based instruments. Moody's anticipates that these strong points will continue in the mid to long run. Britain's deficits in terms of credit were clearly credit negatives and have diminished the government's capacity to cope with further tax or cyclical shock without creating credit assessment implication.
In spite of Britain's clear policy stance towards budgetary adjustment, the weakening economic macro context will provide a headwind for revenues expansion and raise the risks that the country's public sector indebtedness will not stabilize over the next three to four years. Moody's choice to downgrade the UK's February 2012 subscription rate to zero to Aaa was mainly driven by this issuance and continues to be a key credit enhancer for the future sovereign credit ratings.
Moody's believes that the UK government's main political challenger is to weigh the need for budgetary adjustment against the need for recovery packages. Ratings agencies expect the coming fall announcement, which will be published in December 2012, to clarify how the federal authorities will deal with this balance act.